German wine harvest forecast to fall 20% below average

However, new government figures suggest the decline may be less severe than initially feared, with production forecast to increase on last year.

German winegrowers are facing another below-average harvest in 2026, as prolonged drought and high summer temperatures take their toll on grape yields.

According to an initial forecast from the German Wine Institute (DWI), production could fall around 20% below the ten-year average of 8.7 million hectolitres, equivalent to approximately 7 million hectolitres.

However, a separate estimate published by Germany’s Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on 13 October puts the harvest at 8 million hectolitres, up 5% on 2025 but 4% below the 2020 to 2025 average.

The differing forecasts point to uncertainty surrounding the final size of the vintage, although both organisations expect smaller grapes and potentially high-quality wines following the hot, dry growing season.

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