The largest El Niño pattern "in living memory" is developing in the tropical Pacific, with sea-surface temperatures in the key monitoring region forecast by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to reach around 3C above average during August-October 2026.
Some wine regions will be exposed to brutal climatic conditions, while others might well benefit, but which ones?
The UK's Met Office and other forecasters have warned this could become an exceptionally powerful event – dubbed a "super El Niño" by some in the media.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, has described the signal as "unprecedented", adding: "I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts. A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between 1-2 degrees, with 2C being a really big event. This implies that if the forecast is accurate – and other forecast systems show similar extreme values – then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences."
El Niño events, which recur every two to seven years and last from nine to 12 months, generally start to develop between March and June, peak in intensity between November and February (when Southern Hemisphere grapes are developing), and have their largest influence on global temperatures in the year after they are formed (potentially affecting the next Northern Hemisphere growing season).
Using AI, I have looked at where the extra heat and water are likely to land – and the likely impact on key wine regions.
Likely losers
Australia: The traditional El Niño signature is hotter and drier weather across much of eastern and southern Australia (South Australia, New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania). The WMO's current outlook already shows increased odds of below-normal rainfall across southern and eastern Australia, while above-normal temperatures are expected across much of the country.
Heat and water stress can reduce berry size and yield, accelerate sugar accumulation and disrupt the balance between sugar, acidity, flavour and phenolic maturity. Extreme heat around flowering can also compromise fruit set. There is also increased risk of wildfires.
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