For more than 200 years after the US invaded Canada in the War of 1812, Canada and the United States were the closest of allies and friends. Then the US elected President Donald Trump.
As of this week the US and Canada are at war, according to Canada prime minister Mark Carney. And wine and spirits are at the heart of the conflict.
Eight of Canada's 10 provincial governments removed US wines and spirits from store shelves in March 2025 in response to US tariffs on unrelated products. The US-based Wine Institute claimed in March 2026 that this removal cost the struggling US wine industry $357 million in one year. In trade terms, this is a trickle. The US exported $426 billion worth of goods to Canada in 2025, and imported $453 billion. Had those Canadian provinces imported US wine, that would have increased total US exports to the country by 0.08 percent.
But somehow, US wines and spirits have become symbols of the greater conflict. With apologies to my readers in wineries, what really matters in this trade dispute are cars, steel and aluminum, and dairy products. And, to the Quebecois, French-language labels on products; the US apparently asked to sell products with English-only labels there. The US also wanted Quebec to get rid of a law requiring Netflix and Apple to promote and prioritize French-language content for Quebec viewers.
"Quebec will go to great lengths to affirm its cultural identity," said Marcos Carias, an economist at Coface, a trade credit insurance firm. "They rarely compromise on such issues, even with the Canadian federal government, let alone a foreign government. And keeping the provincial premiers aligned behind him is a key pillar of Carney's strategy. He can't afford to lose Quebec."
Canada was willing to give in on the wine/spirits issue. Carney told provincial governors last week that they would be expected to put Barefoot Cellars and Jack Daniel's back on the shelves if an agreement was signed.
Instead, Canada walked away from negotiations on Friday. Trump celebrated the new trade war by posting: "Canada wants the benefits of being a State, without being one." Previous comments by Trump about annexing Canada are at the heart of the Canadian public's anger; as recently as June he shared an article about Canada's economy with the message "51st State!" This prompted Ontario Premier Doug Ford to say: "We'll never be a 51st state. Canada is not for sale." Trump's post on Friday is like spraying grain alcohol on a spitting-hot fire.
A new poll from Canada's Angus Reid Institute, taken after Carney walked away, showed that 69 percent of Canadians agree that "Carney showed strength by refusing to accept terms that were not in Canada's interest". Because 12 percent were "not sure", only 19 percent of Canadians think "Carney showed poor judgment by allowing negotiations to fail".
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