The alcoholic drinks sector is changing according to research, offered by the IWSR, but while its analysis has estimated that, following declines to 2031, there is promise in the suggestion that global volume is forecast to recover almost all of its 2025 level by 2035. A stabilising move amounting to a 1% total volume decline over the decade.
Rebalancing
The projection, which is part of IWSR’s annual global data release, includes confirmed 2025 consumption data and IWSR’s first 10-year forecasts for all 160 national markets it monitors. According to the findings, the stabilisation in global volume from 2031 will be driven by two main factors: a “substantial rebalancing” of the global market, and continued growth in the worldwide drinking age population.
Over the next decade, the global beverage alcohol market is, according to the analysis, anticipated to be “shifting away from China, North America and Europe to India, South America and Africa”. From a global perspective, this is said to be “most clearly illustrated by looking at consumption by servings” with the research highlighting that “the different serving size volumes of different categories” is a factor to consider.
For instance, the number of beverage alcohol servings consumed in China in 2035 is forecast to be 19% lower than it was in 2025. Added to this, other large falls in total beverage servings consumed over the same period are set to be seen in the US (down 18%), Japan (down 15%), Germany (down 14%), and the UK (down 13%). Bucking this trend, servings consumed annually from 2025 to 2035 will, according to the data, surge in Mexico (up 13%), Vietnam (up 15%), Colombia (up 26%) and India (up 38%). Plus, when measured by servings, India is forecast to surpass the US in 2032 to become the second largest market for beverage alcohol in the world after China.
Moderation
The data also outlined that moderation, whether driven by lifestyle or economic factors, will continue to be a growing trend over the next decade. This can be seen by global annual per capita litres of pure alcohol being forecast to drop by half a litre by 2035 (a drop approximately equivalent to two bottles of spirits or a case of wine per person per year).
Click HERE to read the full article.