Even though wine sales in the U.S. market hit an all-time high of $115 billion in 2025, experts are concerned that higher wine prices are masking structural issues in the market, according to the new 2026 BMO Wine Market Report.
“What we’re seeing isn’t a pause — it’s a reset. Higher prices are keeping overall market value elevated, but they’re masking a structural slide in consumption,” stated Adam Beak, head of wine and spirits at BMO (Bank of Montreal) and one of the report’s authors.
At the same time, more than 71% of wineries surveyed for the BMO report expect the U.S. wine industry to stabilize or rebound within the next three years, while 38% believe it will take even less time to recover.
To learn more about the report’s premise that the record-breaking $115 billion in 2025 U.S. wine sales is masking deeper industry problems, I reached out to two of the report authors, Adam Beak of BMO and Andrew Adams, editor of Wine Analytics Report, for online interviews.
“Wineries with the willingness and resources to commit to retaining their existing customers while successfully engaging new ones should be able to navigate this challenging market,” stated Andrew Adams.
As editor of the Wine Analytics Report, Adams and his team were responsible for surveying U.S. wineries to provide accurate representation by winery region, size, and price point. Other report contributors include Baker Tilly, BW166, and Gomberg, Fredrikson and Associates.
Reasons for the US wine market reset
So why do the report authors believe that $115 billion in U.S. wine sales illustrates a glossy growth story, but lacks the unit economics to support it?
The main reason, according to Beak and Adams, is that Americans are drinking less alcohol overall — not just wine. However, when they do purchase wine, they are choosing more expensive bottles rather than the high volumes of lower-priced wines that flew off supermarket shelves prior to 2019, when the slowdown first began.
Inflation, tariff disruptions, and higher supply costs for equipment and fuel have also forced retailers to increase bottle prices, pushing total U.S. wine market sales higher each year even though volume sales declined by 4% in 2025.
“Fewer people are drinking wine, and they’re doing it less often,” stated Beak. “But they are drinking better, more expensive wines.”
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