One thing has become crystal clear over the last few months. The drinks industry is changing and changing fast. Such is the political and trading uncertainty across all the main traditional wine and spirits markets, it is forcing producer after producer to look seriously and strategically at what new opportunities there are in the so called emerging and developing markets around the world. It’s why we can expect to see far more focus, scrutiny and investment into more countries and regions across Asia, Africa, South America and India as trading opportunities open up like never before, threatening the already troubled and declining traditional wine markets. Richard Siddle has spent the last few weeks talking to major producers, and buyers to determine just how the new world of drinks might look in the months and years to come.
President Macron might have only spent a few hours at Wine Paris in February, but he left the show with a crucial message for the international wine and spirits industry. Do all you can to protect your products in the markets they are in, but now is the time to focus on the future and what new opportunities lie elsewhere.
As he explained: “One of the key challenges is to export successfully within Europe, to defend our wines internationally when they come under attack from aggressive practices and then to move forward and conquer new markets – India, Canada and Brazil for example.”
It’s an issue that Lamberto Frescobaldi, president of Italy’s biggest trade association for wine and spirits producers, the Unione Italiana Vini, seized upon during a so-called “Tariff Task Force” meeting in Rome also in February.
He set out the predicament facing most traditional European wine producing countries: “The wine sector desperately needs to broaden its scope of action…We must accelerate trade agreements (Mercosur and India, first and foremost), and invest in being ever more present on key and emerging markets…The future will depend more and more on third-party markets.”
He was speaking in response to what had been a 23% reduction in Italian wine exports to the US in the second half of 2025 after being hit by the 15% tariffs placed on all EU wine by President Trump - now reduced to 10%. A move Italian wine bodies said had cost the country at least €300m in the last 12 months.
Analyse the import and export figures of all major traditional wine and spirits producing countries and it is a similar story as producers all over Europe, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, the US and South America are reeling from the fall out of Trump’s global tariffs and the knock-on effect it has had on other trading restrictions around the world.
The Trump factor
The impact Donald Trump’s tariffs have had on the performance of the world’s biggest drinks companies are eye watering. Research from Citi Analysys, for example, claims: Diageo’s figures were hit by $200m on an annualised basis; Pernod Ricard by €18m; Campari by €37m; and around €20m for Rémy Cointreau.
It’s why the chief executives and boards of all those drinks multinationals have publicly declared increased investment in developing new markets and the need to diversify its interest and performance in all the target emerging countries around the world.
Just look at Rémy Cointreau. It announced a major senior management re-structure last week as part of a wider company “Forward Plan” rethink which sees the highly respected Ian McLernon, appointed chief markets officer with a specific brief to oversee new emerging markets and “strengthen the development of these high-potential markets”.
After all it is these drinks giants that between them are reportedly stuck with $22 billion worth of aging inventory, according to Financial Times.
Big wine companies are also being hit hard by the collapse in US wine sales. Casella Family Brands, maker of Yellow Tail, that has enjoyed huge success in the US, has reported its first loss in 13 years as sales to the US plummeted 17% last year resulting in a A$5.5m loss vs A$18.6m profits in 2024 and A$26.5m in 2023. Casella’s Australia sales are now bigger than in the US for the first time.
Which is not surprising when the market for total imported wine in the US in 2025 was down 8.3% year-on-year to $6.22 billion (The American Association of Wine Economists).
What imported wine there is in the market is having to be sold at higher prices with US wholesalers reporting average increases in 2025 of 5%-12%, with further increases expected this year. Southern Glazer's Wine and Spirits says its imported wine sales volumes were down around 8% between October 2025 and January 2026.
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Time to act
Producers and their domestic generic bodies are having to act fast to try and plug the gaping holes in their export sales.
As Siobhan Thompson, chief executive of Wines of South Africa, explains: “Building demand in developing and emerging markets is central to our export strategy. These markets present opportunities for sustainable growth over the long term, particularly as global consumption patterns evolve.”
It’s why we are seeing increased activity by the likes of California Wine Institute to explore new export opportunities in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and India. With domestic sales on a seemingly long term downwards trajectory, US and Californian producers now have no choice but seriously look to open up new routes to market.
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