Over the next year, wine businesses will be forced to make decisions based on difficult economic conditions, but Americans are still buying wine—and creating opportunities in certain categories
“Moving into 2026, I foresee economic factors, rather than stylistic preferences or trends, being the main driver behind most wine-drinking decisions,” says Evan White, the wine director at Houston’s Bludorn. That sums up the industry perspective. There’s no denying tough times, as everyone from producers to the consumers attempts to navigate dire straits. Still, some bright spots, and looming opportunities, are emerging for smart players in wine.
1. The bust will continue
There’s a reason that a small wine importer, New York City’s V.O.S. Selections, is the lead plaintiff in a Supreme Court case against the Trump administration’s tariffs. A 15-percent tariff is driving up costs from the European Union, which supplies 80 percent of imported wines, and U.S. importers are suffering. “Importers, distributors, suppliers, retailers, restaurants—there are so many jobs impacted because of these tariffs,” laments Marcelo Aguero, the CEO of Kobrand Wine and Spirits in Purchase, New York.
Higher prices on imported wines “might seem like a good thing for U.S. wines, but it eventually leads to price increases for domestic producers,” explains Schuyler Munroe, the lead sommelier at San Diego’s Callie. “[The] cost of production goods goes up, and distribution fees rise to counter increased taxes, all without talking about labor shortages with the current immigration policies. I foresee most prices going up 15 to 20 percent over the next year or two.” Meanwhile, the export market is shrinking. Retaliation against Trump’s tariffs crashed wine sales to Canada in the second quarter of 2025 by 91 percent.
Meanwhile, exports will further contract as European trade associations like the Unione Italiana Vini (UIV) push their governments for assistance to develop overseas markets other than the U.S. Although Italian producers lowered export prices in 2025 by 15 percent and French producers dropped them 26 percent, according to a UIV press release, imported wine prices across U.S. retailers still rose by five percent.
But Walker Strangis, the owner of Los Angeles retailer Walker Wine Company, says the real problem is the contraction in demand. “Even before the tariffs, there was a general, pervasive slowdown in sales, the exact cause of which no one has been able to identify. Non-alcoholic, ready-to-drink, THC, politics—the list of possibilities is endless. There are a great many headwinds.” Wine consumption has plummeted to a 60-year low, and California ripped out at least 38,000 acres of vines last year—seven percent of its acreage. Strangis’s prediction? “2026 will be the year of unintended adjustments.”
Or intended adjustments, depending on how you look at it. Buyers looking to ride out another bust year will get leaner and shop smarter. “For 2026, the defining trend could be intentionality,” says Jeff Cleveland, the general manager, sommelier, and partner at Milwaukee’s Birch. “After a few years of rising prices, uncertainty with importers’ and distributors’ portfolios, and unpredictable availability, we may want to move away from a ‘grab what we can’ mentality and build smaller, more purposeful wine programs. A thoughtful, streamlined list built with conviction gives a more personal experience and, ironically, might deliver better value.”
2. We’ll drink less but better
U.S. wine consumption has declined by nearly 20 percent since its pandemic-influenced peak in 2021. In a recent Wine Opinions survey, 47 percent of respondents who are drinking less say it’s due to rising prices. But that doesn’t mean consumers won’t buy wine in 2026; they’ll just spend with more discernment. “People are drinking less, but when they do buy a bottle, they are much more willing to pay for something quality, made in the right way, with something to say,” says Ryan Sipin, the consulting wine director at La Fête in Birmingham, Alabama.
Tracy Latimer, the lead sommelier at Fleurette in San Diego, concurs. “Our guests are happy to spend a little more for organic, independent, small-production wine instead of mass-produced, entry-level wines, against the grain of an economic downturn,” she says. “They are drinking less and ensuring that what they do choose to splurge on is of higher quality and value.”
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