Grapes still hung on the vine as superlatives started to trickle in from Champagne. “The 2025 harvest is truly unprecedented, marked by the dazzling rhythm of ripening,” was the verdict from Perrier-Jouët cellar master Séverine Frerson, by no means an outlier in her excitement. Few houses drape more than the flimsiest veil of coyness over whether we should look forward to a fanfare of 2025 vintage releases in a few years’ time.
At a moment when everyone wants to rave about quality, it can be difficult to turn the subject to quantity. Yet, despite universal recognition of 2025’s potential for greatness, this is also the year when the Comité Champagne (CIVC) set a “rendement commercialisable” or “marketable yield” which – with the exception of 2020’s controversial, Covid-induced anomaly – is the lowest in the modern era. What’s more, this 9,000kg/ha yield limit came in the wake of significant cuts over the two preceding years. Should we view this yield reduction as a temporary blip or Champagne’s new normal?
To understand this scenario, it is vital to remember that the region’s yields are primarily decided not with an eye to the vineyard, but the global marketplace. With Champagne shipments falling to 271.3 million bottles in 2024, their third successive year of significant decline, the need to rebalance stock overrides all other considerations.
Fluctuating yields
Victoria Henson, director of the Champagne Bureau UK, assesses 2025’s marketable yield as nothing more than a move “to cautiously respond to today’s realities and ensure market balance”. As such, there is in theory nothing to stop it bouncing back up to previous levels. “We cannot forecast yield in coming years,” she insists. “If we take the last decade, for example, we have seen yields fluctuate between 8,000kg/ha and 12,000kg/ha.”
Take an even longer perspective and it’s clear that even this broad bracket would be almost unrecognisible to Champagne’s post-war generation. From an average of only 3,670kg/ha (equivalent to 24hl/ha) in the 1940s, the region’s yield had almost trebled to an average of 9,910kg/ha (66hl/ha) by the 1980s. This rise was accompanied by an energetic planting programme which saw Champagne’s vineyard hectarage double between 1958 and 1978 alone. The production surge went hand-in-hand with an almighty sales boom. Global Champagne shipments enjoyed a steady upward trajectory from only 31.1m bottles in 1950 to a peak of 338.7m bottles in 2007.
Is that level achievable once more? Not in the forseeable future appears to be the consensus. “The Champagne market has entered a phase of correction and stabilisation,” suggests Charles-Armand de Belenet, managing director at Champagne Bollinger. “We expect volumes to settle around 270m to 280m bottles in the coming years, and it seems unlikely that we will quickly return to 300m.” As a result, he predicts, “yields will probably remain in the 9,000-9,500kg/ha range over the next two or three years, unless there is a spectacular rebound.”
Delicate compromise
The annual yield decision represents a delicate compromise negotiated between houses and growers. Perhaps it’s the result of tight message discipline, but the overriding reaction to this year’s limit has been supportive.
Nevertheless, there lingers a suggestion that logical and fair are not quite the same thing as desirable. Guillaume Roffiaen, director of Vines & Wines for Terroirs & Vignerons de Champagne (TEVC) and cellar master of Champagne Nicolas Feuillatte, describes this year’s permitted yield as “a reasonable decision”. That said, he remarks: “The TEVC Group is naturally sized to cope with a higher yield than this,” and suggests: “The right balance for Champagne probably remains a target of 300m bottles per year.”
One factor that has certainly helped mollify any grumbles about the imposition of a low yield on such an affable growing season is the CIVC’s 2023 decision to increase the “réserve individuelle” from 8,000kg/ha to 10,000kg/ha. This ability to stockpile effectively an entire harvest’s-worth of wine allows producers to level out fluctuations not just in quantity, but also in quality.
“The strength of Champagne lies in its ability to adapt,” remarks Hadrien Mouflard, managing director at Champagne Ayala. He views the expanded reserve as representing an important element of that flexibility. “For Champagne Ayala, it’s positive because it increases the volume of reserve wines in stock, which aligns with our qualitative objectives of using more than 40% of reserve wines in our NV blends,” he explains. “Not all our partners are always able to guarantee their reserves, so this increase is a real asset.”
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