Last year, the top 25% of wineries enjoyed revenue growth of 22%. The bottom 25% saw a -16% decline, according to the Silicon Valley Bank’s State of the US Wine Industry 2025. It looks like that’s continuing, but with many shades of grey in the black and white.
“Wine continues to face headwinds in both dollars and case volume through the front half of the year, though we are starting to see some stabilisation,” says Kaleigh Theriault, associate director of thought leadership in the NIQ Beverage Alcohol Vertical. “Premiumisation as a mindset for consumers is contributing to shifts and better-than-average trends in wines priced between US$15 and $30.”
A look at the numbers
Looking ahead, Theriault predicts a strong finish for wine in 2025, as long as consumers deliver a solid celebratory and holiday gifting season.
David Parker, founder and CEO of Napa’s Benchmark Wine Group, a leading source for rare and collectable wines, acknowledges that volume sales are down, but points to strong numbers for high-value wines and collectables.
“Rare and back vintage wines have been appreciating in the US market overall so far in 2025, being up several per cent on average,” Parker notes. “Bordeaux, Port, Champagne and Grand Cru white Burgundy are the strongest collectable categories, with red Burgundy and Rhones being the weakest.”
The shaky dollar and ever-shifting tariff strategy may play a part, he notes, adding that at Benchmark, each of the last three quarters has seen record sales.
Interestingly, people are modifying their drinking patterns, perhaps as a reflection of younger generations’ embrace of a healthier approach to consumption.
In the four weeks ending June 14, sales of domestic table and sparkling wines through NIQ off-premise fell in volume by 6%, with higher-priced wines fairing better, and those $15 and more declining by less than 3%.
When people are drinking alcohol, they tend to be doing it at restaurants or bars. NIQ’s on-premise report shows that 47% of consumers reported visiting a bar or restaurant for a drink in the past month, for the period ending July 18, with value velocity and ticket counts up 6% and 9% respectively, for the week ending July 26.
What’s behind these dynamic, evolving trends? A complex hodge-podge of financial, social and emotional factors.
Premiumisation
Like “pivoting,” “premiumisation” is overused when it comes to marketing generally and wine sales in particular. And yet, it’s tough to ignore the continued strength of high-priced wines.
“The word ‘premiumisation’ has been utilised in recent years to characterise consumers trading up in price, a multi-decade phenomenon in the US wine industry,” says David Bowman, chief commercial officer at Ste. Michelle Wine Estates in Washington. “While trading up in the wine category overall slowed starting in 2023, the secular trend remains intact.”
While Bowman acknowledges that there are few “compelling US wines below $15 anymore,” they’ve doubled down on investing more in “quality grape growing and winemaking techniques, starting with the 2023 vintage and going forward. The biggest opportunities for the industry to gain new consumers lie in improving our money per ounce quality, and in making wines by the glass more attractive.”
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