Since January, the entire world has been caught in a cold tariff war sparked by a mercurial leader who seems to see as his enemy every other nation not doing his bidding.
No one is immune: not the many Trump-supporting billionaires who saw a collective $536 billion wiped from their portfolios in the days following Trump's "liberation day" in April; not the thousands of wine businesses on both sides of the Atlantic that may or may not get slapped with the 30-percent tariff he recently threatened to levy against all products from the European Union and Mexico; and not the millions of US consumers who will see prices on almost everything they buy go up if and when the levies set in.
The escalating number of question marks and uncertainties that emerge as Trump continues to impose, cancel, threaten again, pause, modify up or down is in some ways, the worst part of the ordeal. (At one point, he was dangling a 200-percent tax on European wine, which never materialized).
"The tariffs, if and when they appear, will be a problem," says Massimo Romani, CEO of Argea, a private wine group created in 2022 with brands from across Italy, revenues of $534 million in 2024, and with about 25 percent of the product landing in the US. "But the more serious issue, by far, is uncertainty. If we know what we are facing, we can make plans."
Not being able to come up with a coherent strategy will cost everyone along the chain of consumption, from grape growers and winemakers to importers, distributors and consumers, pay.
The leaders of EU and Mexico have been given until August 1 to arrive at an agreement, or else. Maybe?
Some industries and individual businesses will respond to these tariffs by simply finding willing trading partners elsewhere. But for the wine trade, which is based on long-term relationships created between a complex tapestry of interconnected ventures built over decades, a simple pivot is not possible. Last year, Italy exported $2 billion worth of wine to the US, an increase of 10 percent year-over-year, representing almost one-quarter of its global exports.
And despite the brutal uncertainty, many Italian producers are keen to remain in the US. Some are even strengthening their commitment.
Get ahead
In anticipation of punishing tariffs in the worst case scenario and uncertainty in the best case, many brands who rely on the US for a variety of strategic reasons are devoting extra time and energy to the market.
"We have strategically strengthened our presence in the US through a targeted investment plan, supported by our dedicated export manager, who works directly with our importer's team and distribution partners," says Stefano Casadei, founder of Famiglia Casadei, which produced 700,000 bottles annually, half of which hail from Tuscany's Castello del Trebbio, with the remaining split among Tenuta Casadei in Tuscany, Eliana in Sardinia and Terre di Romena in Tuscany.
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