The global drinks industry stands at a critical juncture. The World Health Organisation has fired the starting gun for the imminent implementation of what is otherwise referred to as the “tobacco playbook” – a proven regulatory strategy that transforms legitimate businesses into heavily restricted industries through incremental policy escalation. Health authorities worldwide will no doubt pick up and adopt the WHO’s “no safe limit” stance, likely driven by activist health organisations pushing for the tobacco playbook to be deployed. For drinks companies, understanding this playbook isn’t just strategic planning; it’s survival.
The World Health Organisation’s declaration “there is no safe amount [of alcohol] that does not affect health” represents more than public health guidance – it’s the opening salvo in a coordinated regulatory assault. This absolutist position, published in The Lancet Public Health, deliberately echoes tobacco policy by eliminating any distinction between moderate consumption and abuse. By declaring no safe level exists, regulators create justification for unlimited intervention.
Industry leaders sound the alarm
Leading industry executives are already voicing concerns about this regulatory trajectory. Diageo chief executive Debra Crew told the Financial Times that the spirits giant was talking to policymakers to weed out inaccurate data on the health impacts of alcohol, saying, “There is some science going out there that is just not accurate, so we are trying to combat that.” Meanwhile, Asahi chief executive Atsushi Katsuki told the FT that while he was “absolutely not denying that there are risks” attached to drinking, he believed the message of “no safe level” was misleading, arguing there was “lots of evidence” that moderate alcohol consumption could have health and wellbeing benefits.
The playbook unfolds
The tobacco regulatory template follows a predictable sequence: mandatory health warnings escalate to comprehensive advertising bans, plain packaging requirements, punitive taxation, and ultimately, product design restrictions. Each step creates precedent for the next, making resistance increasingly difficult as the industry becomes systematically demonised.
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