Last year, the United States represented almost one-quarter (24%) of Italy’s overseas wine sales, making it the country’s largest export market by a long way. However, with EU nations subject to flip-flopping tariffs under President Donald Trump’s administration, Italian producers are now stuck in a kind of purgatory.
“The industry is essentially in a holding pattern awaiting Washington’s next move, with US wine businesses caught between bursting warehouses and the threat of a price shock that could send everyday Italian wine off US shelves entirely,” Nunzio Castaldi, president of New York-based wine importer Panebianco Wines, which works with more than 50 Italian producers, tells db.
“July is the critical month. I would be very satisfied if Washington and Brussels at least engineer an armistice where they agree to keep the current tariff rate of 10% for the remainder of 2025. If this happens, I can foresee only a single-digit dip in Italian wine inflows.”
If a solid agreement is not reached in July, warns Castaldi, then “the US wine trade faces a summer of 50% duties as announced already by Washington DC”. Not one to mince his words, he declares simply: “That will be devastating.”
Entry-level wines to be hit hardest
According to Castaldi, it’s the “entry-level and mid-tier segments” of the Italian wine sector that are most vulnerable if tariffs climb – those bottles priced between US$10.99 and US$15.99. As is almost always the case with fine wine, “US buyers of high-end Brunello, Barolo, Super Tuscans and so on will absorb price hikes better than the value end.”
Stefano Girelli, co-founder of The Wine People, a Trento-based exporter that sells wine from across Italy to more than 43 different countries, including the US, underlines this conviction. “The wines most likely to be affected are those in the entry level. They are highly sensitive to even small price increases as they compete in a very crowded and price-driven market,” he says. “Our premium and niche wines may be slightly more resilient, as they attract a different type of consumer who tends to be more quality-focused than price-sensitive.”
Castaldi name-checks Pinot Grigio and Prosecco as among those wines likely to be sucker-punched by higher US import tariffs. “In my opinion wines like Pinot Grigio Delle Venezie, and entry-level Prosecco – outside the [higher-value] Conegliano, Valdobbiadene or Asolo areas – will be at risk,” he says, although the DOC Delle Venezie reassures the drinks business that it has “been closely monitoring the data” and “has not experienced any significant setbacks due to the introduction of tariffs” so far this year.
No hyperbole
It’s certainly not hyperbole, though, to say that some Italian wines could be pushed off US shelves completely by the tariff changes. Saying that he is “obviously very concerned by these unnecessarily protectionist and anti-historical measures”, Davide Acerra, communication and marketing manager for the Consorzio Tutela Vini d’Abruzzo, explains the domino effect that the tariffs could end up having.
“The official data (from UIV Observatory) shows that the average export price to the US is €5.35 per litre for Italian wine, with only 30% of ‘popular’ wines in line with this figure (€5.26). Over half are well below this, at about €3.53 per litre. Additional tariffs of 20%, not managed fairly between the parties, would end up pushing these wines into the immediately higher, ‘premium’ bracket,” he says.
“However, premium Italian wines currently account for 17% of volume and would not be able to absorb this transfer from the lower range, inevitably pushing our product [Abruzzo wines] out of the market.”
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