Brexit and the UK wine market: did 2017 predictions hold up?

When a 2017 Cambridge study on Brexit’s impact on the UK wine market was published, it predicted economic headwinds, currency devaluation and a downward spiral in domestic wine consumption. Seven years on, with fresh reports from the Wine and Spirit Trade Association (WSTA) and the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), it’s time to see how well those predictions aged.

The Cambridge model projected a decline in UK wine consumption due to sluggish economic growth and a weaker pound making imports more expensive. The latest WSTA report confirms that wine consumption has indeed dipped, but the culprit appears to be not just Brexit but also relentless tax hikes. In 2022, the UK wine and spirits industry contributed £76.3 billion in total turnover, with a significant chunk of that going straight to the Treasury.

Meanwhile, the OIV’s 2024 report paints a grim picture of global wine trends: wine production is down 2% from 2023, marking the lowest global output since 1961. Europe has been particularly hard hit, with climate change battering vineyards across France and Spain, making imports even more costly for British buyers.

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