These are such uncertain times that it seems foolhardy to try to predict which markets are likely to be the most and least promising for 2025. But, here goes.
North America
United States
Until we know about Donald Trump’ tariffs and the impact on the US economy of his return to power, and the effect of increasingly alarming/ist health warnings, any attempt to predict the state of the wine market over the next 12 months is a one-eyed shot in the dark. However, as sales of wine-based alcohol-free wines and RTDs (including wine RTDs) seem set to go on rising as more brands follow Josh Cellars in climbing aboard the AF train, there seems to be plenty of justification for expecting conventional wine to repeat its 2024 performance: sales could fall by another 6-8%.
Canada
If anywhere is likely to be impacted by Trumpian sanctions and, if the new US president is to be taken at his word, some quite robust discussions over sovereignty. At best, the Canadian economy is expected to grow by 1.5%. At worst, it might shrink.
The wine trade will continue to be affected by last year's decision by the LCBO to allow Ontario convenience, grocery and big box stores to sell alcohol, This year, we will see how having over 8,000 more retail outlets affects consumption.
The negative impact of semaglutides on wine consumption will be global but, given its proximity to the US where the drugs are particularly popular, Canada might also be disproportionally affected. While Americans are paying $1,000 per month for Ozempic, the cost for their northerly neighbours is as little as $140.
Asia
China
The Beijing government is doing everything it can to reboot consumer spending after the slowdown caused by the pandemic and the property sector crisis. This may help the on-trade and retail wine sales.
There are positive signs, too, from the most recent Australian export figures for the six months since the removal of tariffs. These suggest that Chinese wine consumption might be bouncing back. Over the year, some 59m litres were shipped, with a total value of AU$612m ($384m).
The authors of the export report frankly acknowledge, however, that the figures are “likely to be characteristic of re-stocking Australian wine after a long absence”.
Support for this cautious view comes from other, less encouraging data. In the year to November, French imports fell by 21% in volume, Spain’s by 37%, Italy’s by 13% and Chile’s by 15%. In all of these cases, apart from Chile, the value fall was smaller, indicating that Chinese who are drinking wine are trading up. But they are not drinking enough.
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