Cannabis is often forgotten as a competitor to wine, but the numbers tell their own story.
Weed grows
While alcohol consumption falls, cannabis use is growing. Euromonitor estimates 2023 legal sales of $47bn – 13% up on 2022. They predict compound growth of 18% annually from 2023 to 2028 as “more geographies are moving from prohibition to controlling and taxing cannabinoid products”. If accurate, that would mean a global legal market value of around $100bn – not far off a third of that of the current estimated wine market.
Functional ‘wines’
For the same well-being-related reasons that people are increasingly turning away from alcohol, there will be growth of beverages ‘improved’ by the addition of vitamins, stress-relieving adaptogens, CBD, THC (where legal) and nootropics that enhance brain function. Some of these will be made with NA ‘wine’.
Will this be driven by snake-oil salespeople like the ones who promoted ‘clean wine’ and ‘legal highs’? Of course, but I’m predicting, not recommending.
Fine wine; choppy waters
The Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 index fell by 13% in 2023, and a further 11% last year. Too many bottles are gathering dust in private cellars. Their owners are not drinking or selling, them - or looking to buy new releases such as the – mixed-quality – 2024 vintage in Bordeaux.
One Bordeaux chateau owner is said to be considering giving up one of his wines’ second label. Instead, he’ll produce a larger quantity to sell through supermarkets.
Would he still offer it en primeur or through la Place de Bordeaux? Will others follow?
And what about the unconsumed fine wine he and his neighbours have already sold?
Napa woes
In 2023, Napa Valley Cabernet grapes cost around $9.000 per ton. Last year, grapes from prime Rutherford, St Helena, Oak Knoll and Oakville were $4-5,000. Expect attractive offers to wine club members, joint efforts with other luxury products, and more – metaphorical or real – for sale boards across California.
Turning white
The most recent US SipSource data show all red wine categories and Chardonnay falling, but other white categories either grew - albeit from low bases – or barely changed. An increase in Blanc de Noirs production seems inevitable – as does a transformation of many vineyards.
Less rosy prospects
SipSource data show a 13% fall in US rosé sales but pink wine has become a popular year-round beverage. Strongly branded, well-packaged, premium and super-premium pink wine is still a strong sector, as is confirmed by LVMH’s investment in Whispering Angel and Pernod Ricard’s retention of its Sainte Marguerite Provence brand while offloading its other still wine brands.
Click HERE to read the full article.