Decreased consumption, proliferating climate disasters, and a change in U.S. leadership that promises to upend business as usual are making for tough times in wine. But, as Adam Casto, the winemaker at Napa’s Ehlers Estate, observes, “A sense of destabilization in virtually all categories of a largely staid industry has, as it should, sent us scrambling for solutions and provided need-based opportunities for innovation. While there is not yet a clear consensus on what exactly it is we are running from or to, what is clear is that we need to run.” As 2025 unfolds, here’s what wine pros forecast for the industry, and ways they plan to respond.
1. The effects of the second Trump term will be profound
With Donald Trump’s reelection, tariffs loom. First will come a rush on imports. “There should be containers coming now from Europe to hit landfall before Inauguration Day and get wines in at a lower price,” says Brian Rosen, the founder and managing partner of the private equity firm InvestBev. If tariffs are enacted, the EU will likely retaliate with its own levies, causing an export slump for American wines. Rosen projects a 13 to 16 percent dip in imports and a larger decrease of 18 to 22 percent in exports.
Though tariffs are designed to boost American-made products at home, “It’s likely sales will fall as capital costs increase for U.S. producers,” says Caroline Clark, the director of beverage and hospitality at Colorado’s Id Est. “Plus, evidence shows that consumers won’t switch to domestic wines, but instead cheaper options like beer.”
Given inflation, “People have been less inclined to drink things over $100 already,” says Adrienne Vanni, the beverage director of New York City’s Lola’s. “With tariffs, that will really be the case. Lots of wines will be priced out.”
In response, sommeliers worry about additional work and stress. “Decreased inventories, late shipments, and price increases require huge flexibility on my end and communication on distributors’ and importers’ end,” says Lindsay Ogden, the beverage manager for Ajja in Raleigh, North Carolina. “I anticipate having to update menus with greater frequency, keep staff apprised of daily fluctuations, and constantly retrain.”
Artisanal producers will suffer the most, say Gentleman Farmer Wines’ Jeff Durham and Joey Wołosz. “Large companies can stock up on inventory now. Family-owned wineries will have to buy barrels, bottles, and corks next year after possible tariffs go into effect,” they say.
...
2. Climate change will accelerate its impact, and producers will accelerate their response
Wineries and buyers are going into 2025 on the heels of a year that saw catastrophic flooding in Spanish wine regions and an unprecedented hurricane in Asheville, North Carolina, where Plēb Urban Winery was devastated. “Rising temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns are already impacting the 2025 vintage,” says Schmid. “Smaller producers, especially, face increasing challenges in adapting. Collaborative sustainability efforts and consumer education will be key to navigating these issues effectively.”
At Santa Barbara’s family-owned Pali Wine Co., “That means sharing our organic and regenerative farming techniques, sourcing like-minded partners across the Central Coast, and expanding our green thumb across our operation,” says marketing and ecommerce manager Madison Steinberg.
But everywhere in the wine world, green initiatives are proliferating in response to climate change. Global organic wine sales, now $12.4 billion, are expected to grow over 10 percent in the next five years. Despite the political backlash in the U.S. against ESG—the environmental, social, and governance responsibility that has become a standard for regulators—California, several nations, and in 2025, the EU, are requiring disclosure of climate risks as part of corporate sustainability reports.
As a result, Angelina Mondavi, the consulting winemaker at Charles Krug, where solar powers 80 percent of production, says “a trend is minimizing our carbon footprint throughout the vineyards, winery, and packaging.” Andrés Valero, the leader of sustainability and corporate social responsibility at Argentina’s Grupo Avinea, predicts increased awareness of biodiversity’s role in winegrowing; increased reuse, recycling, and revaluing waste; and, with pressure from supermarket chains, expansion of Fairtrade.
With many wineries “having frank conversations with consumers about the effects of climate change within their vineyards,” says Rob Giles, the director of beverage at New York City’s Beefbar, “in 2025 we will see consumers demand more transparency with regards to wine.”
Click HERE to read the full article.