Latest data from IWSR shows that no- and low-alcohol consumption across the world’s leading 10 no/low markets (T10*), which account for approximately 70% of global no/low-alcohol volumes, grew by +5% in volume in 2023, and the market is now worth over USD 13bn. The no/low-alcohol category is forecast to grow at a volume CAGR of +6% between 2023 and 2027, led by no-alcohol at +7%, with low-alcohol expanding by +3% over the same timescale.
Although this marks a slightly slower growth rate from previous years (no-alcohol grew at a volume CAGR of +8% between 2019 and 2023), the no-alcohol category is continuing to attract new recruits. Almost a fifth (17%) of all no-alcohol consumers in the past year were new entrants; for low-alcohol, the figure is 16%. This trend is especially evident in emerging no- and low-alcohol markets such as the US and Canada. Younger cohorts of legal drinking age (LDA) are recruited the most across markets, with fewer Boomers entering the category.
“As no- and low-alcohol becomes a more established part of the beverage alcohol landscape, growth is slowing after a peak in 2020 to 2021 – but the category is poised for robust gains in the coming years, spearheaded by no-alcohol and persistently strong recruitment levels,” says Susie Goldspink, Head of No- and Low-Alcohol Insights, IWSR.
No-alcohol now accounts for two-thirds of no/low-alcohol category volumes, with 72% of that made up of beer/cider. No-alcohol continues to take share from traditional alcohol, and IWSR expects no-alcohol to command nearly 4% of TBA volumes across the T10 markets by 2027.
Future growth in no-alcohol will be spearheaded by less developed no-alcohol markets, such as Canada, the US, Australia and Brazil. However, the more mature markets of Germany and Spain are each expected to grow at a CAGR of only +2%, 2023-2027, with Japan forecast to grow at +5%.
The forecasts largely correspond to no and low’s current market penetration: in Germany and Spain, the category has a TBA (total beverage alcohol) share above 10%, but it remains at less than 2% in both Canada and the US.
“In terms of growth opportunities, there is now a clear disparity between more mature and lower-penetration markets,” notes Goldspink. “Countries that are more established in no/low tend to skew towards older consumers, higher alcohol avoidance rates and lower no/low repertoires. Higher-growth markets generally have lower no/low penetration, and a greater share of younger LDA consumers who have a higher tendency to moderate and participate more in no/low categories.”
IWSR consumer research suggests that new entrants to no/low are also driving increased consumption frequency.
To read the full article, click HERE.