The numbers tell two very different stories about American wine right now.
Top-performing wineries grew revenue by 22% in 2025. Bottom-performing wineries declined by 13%. The median winery had no growth at all. That gap – and what drives it – sits at the center of Silicon Valley Bank’s 2026 Direct-to-Consumer Wine Report, released this month by the bank’s wine division, now part of First Citizens Bank.
Drawing on survey responses from 450 family wineries, the 15th annual report arrives at a measured conclusion: The worst of the downturn may be behind the industry, but stabilization is not the same thing as recovery.
“Things feel different, not better – not yet,” says Rob McMillan, EVP and founder of Silicon Valley Bank’s Wine Division and the report’s author.
The mindset gap
What separates the winners from the struggling isn’t appellation prestige or production size. It’s where their attention is directed.
High-performing wineries orient outward – toward customers, relationships and brand building. Lower-performing wineries orient inward – toward costs, operational fixes and tasting room renovations. Both groups report doing many of the same things: hosting events, adjusting pricing, investing in the tasting room experience. The difference lies in execution philosophy.
High performers ask how to understand what their target consumer wants and then deliver it. Lower performers ask how to make what they’re already selling cheaper to produce.
“No matter the environment, you can’t cut your way to growth,” McMillan says. “Brand-building is what makes people desire your wine.”
That divergence shows up across every category the report examines – pricing, events strategy, wine club management and tasting room approach.
Holding the line on price
In a market where discounting can feel like the only available lever, top-quartile wineries are 60% more likely to raise bottle prices than their struggling counterparts. Deep discounts signal to premium buyers that a brand’s best days are behind it, and that perception, once established, is difficult to reverse.
The smarter play, according to the data, is strategic discounting – lowering shipping costs rather than bottle prices, bundling products, offering a complimentary bottle with a case purchase. These approaches preserve perceived value while still rewarding the customer.
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