Quickly rising” oceanic temperatures are the predominant sign that tropical storm El Niño is brewing, say meteorologists.
Weather experts are expecting the Climate Prediction Center, overseen by America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, to declare an El Niño “imminently”, with AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter saying that an official announcement could be made “on Thursday 11 June”.
What is El Niño?
An El Niño is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise to 0.5 °C above the long-term average, leading to high wind shear across the Atlantic Basin, and increasing the risk of heavy rain in some parts of the world, and conversely, drier conditions and drought in others.
“The sea surface temperatures are quickly rising in the equatorial Pacific. The latest weekly numbers are averaging out just over 0.5 degrees Celsius, compared to the long-term historic average, which is the primary criteria for El Niño,” said AccuWeather on Friday 5 June.
“Most El Niños and La Niñas begin in the fall [autumn]. This El Niño will most likely begin soon and strengthen quickly.”
Early starter
The early arrival of El Niño this year means that fewer storms are expected to occur off the US coast, with meteorologists now predicting 11 storms in the Atlantic instead of the 16 storms previously thought. This is because the ferocious wind caused by El Niño prevents localised tropical storms from “organising and intensifying” in the area, said Accuweather.
“This El Niño will likely reduce Atlantic tropical activity. With its arrival early in the hurricane season, we are now leaning closer to 11 named storms rather than 16,” confirmed AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
However, the climatic event is likely to increase storm activity in the eastern and central Pacific “by fuelling systems in the region,” DaSilva added. This means that countries such as Peru, Chile, Mexico and Costa Rica are likely to feel the impact, as well as some US and Canadian regions.
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