Persistently flagging sales, the rise of THC, and health concerns. This unholy trinity has been haunting wine for years now—we’ve all read the headlines, written the story, lived the tale. And yet, when it comes to small-production, highly allocated, and vertiginously priced wines, the yada yada doesn’t seem to apply.
As sales of wine overall continue to contract, premium wine may help set the stage for the recovery so many experts are beginning to quietly forecast.
Silicon Valley Bank Wine Division’s Rob McMillan, for one, writes in his perennially anticipated and dreaded State of the U.S. Wine Industry Report that “for all the headwinds, we are of the belief that the worst of the downturn is behind us.”
And Liv-ex’s 2025 in Review report noted that its major indices had risen consistently since September of 2025, with no signs of slowdown, and predictions that the trend will continue.
High-end Napa Cabernet Sauvignon is a perfect case in point of the current market dichotomy: Cabernet shipments accounted for 32% of the $3.4 billion direct to consumer (DTC) wine market in the U.S., with shipments of Cabernet with an average price of $200 or more growing 14% by value and 10% by volume, according to data from WineBusiness Analytics and Sovos ShipCompliant.
Meanwhile, total shipment volume of Cabernet priced at less than $60 a bottle declined -17% in the past 12 months.
Mikaela Haynes, the vice president of sales, marketing and operations at the top rare wine shop Benchmark Wine Group, says that there are a handful of notable top performers in their stable of producers headed to wholesalers, collectors and top restaurants.
“Within the $200 to $300 range, performance has been led by classic Napa Valley producers such as Joseph Phelps and Shafer, alongside a noticeable uptick in California cult wines, including Sine Qua Non,” Haynes says. “In Bordeaux, demand has been strongest for Second and Fifth Growths that offer strong pedigree and value relative to First Growth pricing.”
In the $300-$600 tier, sales were dominated by cult Napa producers like Bond, Colgin and Hundred Acre, Haynes said, alongside momentum for First Growths like Haut-Brion and Mouton Rothschild, and Burgundy Grand Cru like Louis Jadot and Joseph Drouhin.
At the tippety-top, ultra-luxury wines priced at $10,000 or more a bottle grew 28% year over year.
Choosier purchases
It’s a buyer’s market. $500 and $10,000 bottles of wine might be selling well, but only well-provenanced and reputable $500 and $10,000 bottles.
For lines like the $365 Insignia, from Napa’s Joseph Phelps Vineyards, or the extremely limited edition $425 Backus, executive chairman and president David Pearson says there has been a historic interest this year.
“We make just enough of Insignia to make it available on the wider market,” Pearson says. “It’s always a blend of between 80 and 100 lots, which requires a lot of work, so scaling up beyond 10,000 cases would mean compromising quality. We’ve had incredible interest this year, and almost half of the markets it’s being sold in hadn’t offered it before or in many years.”
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