Long-term thinking is critical to the survival of South Africa’s wine industry, as producers navigate accelerating technological change and steadily declining global wine consumption, agricultural economist Dr Jan Greyling told delegates at the Vinpro Nedbank Producer Information Day.
Speaking at the event, held on 22 January at Goudini Spa in Rawsonville, Western Cape, Greyling, a former senior lecturer in agricultural economics at Stellenbosch University, said that while technology is often framed as a rapid solution to industry challenges, the development and adoption of agricultural technologies typically unfold over decades.
“Time and risk are two of the most underappreciated concepts in agriculture,” he said, noting that farmers routinely make intergenerational decisions in an environment where markets, institutions, and corporates often plan just three to five years ahead.
“Think about it: if you plant pecan nuts, it will take about eight years to get into production and more than 12 to break even, and those trees can live for over 100 years.
“Similarly, vines should have an average lifespan of about 25 years, which means that a wine farmer generally only has up to two chances to plant in the same land.”
Drawing on historical examples, Greyling showed that it took 50 to 100 years for major agricultural innovations, including tractors, milking machines, and herbicides, to be widely adopted.
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