Rob McMillan, the wine division founder of First Citizen Bank’s Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), is aware he’s the bearer of bad news. With the 2026 edition of The SVB’s Annual State of the U.S. Wine Industry Report he says, “I’m delivering surprises that people do not want to hear.”
He’s right. Unfortunately, the report asserts this period of decline, course correction, and stabilization—spurred by sales slumps, drifting consumer demand, tariffs, supply imbalances, and confusing health conversations—will continue through the coming year.
In 2025, wine sales volumes dropped to 329 million cases, down from 335.9 million the year prior, and 410 million in 2019. Sales value is down, too, by more than a billion—$74.3 billion in 2025 from $75.5 billion in 2024.
These massive losses are taking a toll and it looks like the industry isn’t even at rock bottom yet. Oversupply remains congested. Sales are still in the red. Sentiment has plummeted. And casualties are expected to climb: some producers will be forced to close and more vines are likely to be ripped out.
While many industry members are hoping things will turn around, this report double-underlines that it’s not going to happen without active participation. “This is not a cycle you can wait out,” McMillan says. “What’s normal will never be normal again.”
Doom and gloom aside, there are positives, specifically demonstrated by wineries who have been proactive and nimble with their approach.
“The only wineries demonstrating growth right now aren’t betting on a return to normal—they are fundamentally altering how they engage with the consumer, manage inventory, and redefine their brand’s value propositions,” says McMillan. “You have to evolve now to be relevant and find advantages in what’s coming.”
To help prepare for the year ahead, we’ve compiled the key takeaways of the 2026 report.
The good
Private label is promising
A glut of high-quality bulk wine is fueling the private-label sales market. While plenty of restaurants are in on the trend, it’s led primarily by Total Wine, Costco, and supermarket brands like Kroger and Gelson’s. These bottlings are often a steal for consumers. For example, Gelson’s sources its wine from blue chip producers like Julien Fayard and Heidi Barrett, offering it to consumers at around $50 per bottle. These wines cost considerably less than the famed producers’ main labels, which can cost upwards of $180.
“It’s a positive form of discounting that attracts new value-seeking consumers, protects existing brand value, and helps drain the ocean of bulk wine,” says McMillian. “It’s an opportunity to get your wines in people’s mouths.”
Demand is improving (slightly)
The SVB report notes that the rate of demand decline is set to improve slightly in 2026. It’s not going up, but it’s not going down as fast as it had been. And there’s still a catch: demand is forecasted to skirt the bottom through 2027 and 2028, at under 330 million cases in volume and around $70 billion in value, then return to modest growth in 2029 and 2030.
Strategic wineries are seeing success
Producers who are actively changing their businesses are doing well. “About a third to a quarter of wineries are growing, doing fine, and are profitable,” says McMillan. “And those are the ones that have an outward view. They’re focusing on external change.”
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