Neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden drinks alcohol. But Trump's family owns a winery in Virginia, and Biden does not.
I'm a Democrat and I'm not going to pretend otherwise. If you are worried about Trump's impact on the nation and the world, I might agree with you. But the wine and spirits industry has reason to be both apprehensive AND optimistic about the change in the White House.
Here are a few of the ways that "Trump II: Rogue Nation" might be different from the current administration on alcohol policy.
Tariffs are the number one concern. In his first term in office, Trump slapped tariffs of 25 percent on some European wines and whiskies. These were the result of trade disputes, including one over airplane subsidies that had been going on since 2004. Trump didn't start these fights, but he did escalate.
Now, Trump comes into office having made tariffs a promise of his campaign. He has suggested tariffs on all goods from Mexico, Canada and China. That would affect a lot more than Tequila, Crown Royal and baiju. Wineries and distilleries import a lot of glass from China, for example.
Also, US wines and spirits do well in the Canadian market, but that might change if Canada imposes retaliatory tariffs of its own.
Second, Trump has promised to deport every illegal immigrant in the United States. Good luck with that: it's estimated that the US has about 16 million illegal immigrants, or about 5 percent of the total population.
But just the threat of immigration raids would be devastating in wine country.
Wine grapes need to be harvested when they're ready. ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) can track harvest season like anyone else. The workers will be there when the grapes are ready. If ICE is also there, many of the workers who aren't arrested might split for someplace safer. By the time they return, those grapes could be raisins.
We got a preview last week in Bakersfield, CA, and Trump isn't even in office yet. The Border Patrol staged an immigration raid during the middle of citrus harvest season. They arrested people dressed for farm work at gas stations and breakfast shops, and they pulled over cars on the main highway. Farmworkers were nearly completely absent from the area the day afterward.
Now imagine a raid like this during Napa Valley just as Cabernet hits peak ripeness.
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