The resistance among hardcore oenophiles to the rise of low and no alcohol wines was completely understandable … at first. But at this point, it’s clear that what seemed like it could be a trend, has become a way of life for many people across the country — even those who love to enjoy a glass, or occasionally three, of fully alcoholic wine.
There are a number of factors at work behind this undeniable surge, some tangible and others less so. There is the World Health Organization’s declaration on January 4, 2023 that there is no “safe” level of alcohol consumption that does not affect health. But there is also the broad, harder-to-measure cultural shift toward wellness, which often involves food and drinks.
What is clearly measurable is the decline in wine sales overall amid the significant spike in the sales of non-alcoholic (NA) wines. Last year, the market size of NA wine was estimated to be around $2.26 billion; that’s expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 7.9% between 2024 and 2030, according to an analysis from Grand View Research. The low-alcohol movement has legs as well, with an expected expansion of 3%, according to research from IWSR.
Some winemakers and industry gatekeepers, while initially bristling at the notion of creating, selling or consuming no- or low-alcohol wines, are now reconsidering, given the increased sales opportunities and, more recently, the pervasive glut of grapes on the market due to over planting and decreased general wine consumption.
Grape growers in California, especially, are struggling to sell their grapes. Listings on the WineBusiness Bulk Wine and Grape Board are up 164% year-over-year, despite the fact that the Golden State’s wine grape acreage has decreased by 18,000 acres in the past six years.
Could the no and low movement, counterintuitively, save the wine industry?
Low and no alcohol wine is an opportunity to grow
It may seem like drinking wine without alcohol is something you do if you’re trying to just not drink alcohol at all. But that’s actually not how it works: about 78% of people who purchase non-alcoholic beverages also purchase drinks with alcohol, according to NielsenIQ.
“A lot of people who drink no and low also drink wine with alcohol,” says Rachel Martin, founder of Oceano Wines in San Luis Obispo. “It allows for moderation.”
Martin should know, as both an enthusiastic consumer and maker of wines with and without alcohol (and soon, a low-alcohol Syrah clocking in at 3.5% ABV). She launched Oceano Zero in 2023 after conceptualizing it in 2022 when seeking out low and no options herself and finding nothing truly terroir-driven and premium on the market.
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