Early estimates indicate that global wine production in 2023 will be below average for the fifth year in a row. However, it is still expected to exceed demand by around 10 per cent, as wine consumption continues its long-term decline.
Based on country reports and forecasts, Wine Australia estimates the 2023 global vintage will be around 25.5 billion litres – just 1 per cent below the 2022 vintage and 4 per cent below the five-year average. If these predictions eventuate, this will be the fifth time in a row that the global vintage has been below average. The current five-year average for 2018 to 2022 is 26.7 billion litres – inflated by the exceptionally large global production of 29.4 billion litres in 2018.
The harvest in the southern hemisphere is complete for 2023, with all the major wine producers having below-average vintages. Australia, Argentina and South Africa have all had their lowest vintages for more than 10 years, while Chile’s vintage was also down (by 15 per cent) but this came after two above-average vintages in 2021 and 2022. Combined, production from these four countries is expected to be down by 23 per cent compared with 2022.
After its record crop in 2022, New Zealand had an unexpectedly large harvest in 2023, just 6 per cent down on the previous year at 501,000 tonnes.
In the northern hemisphere, harvest has not yet started, but current conditions are generally good, with no reason to assume any significant variation from an average vintage. There has been a wet spring in Spain and no major frosts affecting France. The exception may be Italy, which had the wettest May in 10 years, causing some potential wine grape losses, and in July experienced extreme and widespread heatwaves.
In California, the growing season was delayed by an abnormally cool and wet spring, making it difficult to estimate crop size, but there is nothing to suggest it would be particularly large or small at this stage.
In summary, assuming a generally average vintage in the northern hemisphere, combined with the below-average vintage in the southern hemisphere, the total harvest for 2023 is expected to come in just below average and the second-smallest vintage in the past 10 years, with Australia contributing around 4 per cent of total production and moving below Chile to be the sixth-largest producer.
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